The notice of defaults recorded this week are at the third highest (at 139) level since  I started tracking them back in the first part of June.  I assumed that it would be high just because of the passed trends.  Its seems like we get them in spurts, and then they go way down.  The Notice of Sales reported this week (108) is at the highest level since June 28th.  I am guessing from what I have seen so far is that we will have a continued upward trend in the Notice of sales, compared to the last three months.  Some of the banks are starting to process some of the pent-up inventory that has been sitting there for the past year.  I was reading the WSJ, and some of the numbers of the current loans that are in default that haven't been processed yet for the foreclosure proceedings were at very high levels.  I said this in an earlier post that there was 1.2 million of those loans that haven't even started in the distressed pipeline, because of the banks are waiting to see if they can qualify them for Loan Mods, or other bank "workout programs" that are available.  Soon as they become disqualified they move them into the foreclosure process.  To qualify for some of those programs, you need to fit a certain criteria, and the banks are coming to realize that most of the people can't even make the first cut.   

The filings from Ada County are out for the week, and the Notice of defaults are down to the 2nd lowest amount in the last 3 months.  The Notice of Sales are also down too.  From what I can tell in the short run, we are trending downward, but it doesn't take much to make it go back up.  Now that I have over three months data collected from the NOD's and NOS's I think we can conclude that the filings are pretty sporatic, but the data is talking.  We just need to dive further into it.  I think it goes in phases, we have a real high week and then it goes down down down, then we have another high week, and then it goes down down down.. then it happens again.  The problem that I see is the high weeks keep getting higher.  I can't really put a lot into this theory yet until have a couple of months more data. My prediction is that in the next week or two the NOD's will be ski high again, and then we will start over again.    So stay tuned, and tell me what you think, please leave your comments below.

Jeremy Erickson
AdaCountyMarketReport.com

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